- Jim Cramer believes the road to October may be rough for the equities market.
- However, he indicated that the Trump administration tends to defy seasonal market expectations.
The cryptocurrency community breathed a sigh of relief as Bitcoin (BTC) recaptured its footing at the $110K mark. Bullish technical trends reinforced people’s optimism that the premier digital asset may already be building momentum for a climb to a new all-time high (ATH).
However, CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer has offered a stark reminder of what September usually has in store for the market. According to him, historical trends indicate that the month is “seasonally weak.” High inflation numbers and unfavorable jobs data could aggravate the trend.
A Bumpy September for the Equities Market
“September is seasonally weak,” the TV personality warned in a post on X. “We have some inflation numbers and a potentially tough Labor number.”
Despite the bearish context at the beginning of his post on social media, he immediately turned things around at the end of his statement. He shared his observation that President Donald Trump’s administration has been known to go against established patterns in the market.
“But this presidency can defy any seasonality, so I wouldn’t bet on the calendar,” he added.
What This Means for Bitcoin and Crypto
Investors initially turned to Bitcoin to diversify their portfolio, owing to the status of the asset as “digital gold.” As the years went by, BTC suddenly started correlating with capital markets, particularly having a closer relationship with tech stocks due to their classification as “risk-on” or “growth” assets. Both offer investors enticing returns in a highly confident market, but they’re usually the first to bear the brunt of heavy selling pressure in risk-off scenarios.
According to the CME Group, the phenomenon is due to Bitcoin’s growing institutional acceptance and portfolio integration. Its arrival into mainstream finance and maturity as an asset started syncing its price actions with traditional markets.
Tanaya Maccheel, a reporter at CNBC, also highlighted this peculiarity in Bitcoin’s trajectory. She pointed out that it tended to display volatility like a traditional risk asset. Hence, BTC will likely move in tandem with traditional assets in times of market turbulence.
However, Macheel additionally emphasized that zooming in on the charts over a longer timeframe reveals that BTC’s price constantly appreciates against the devaluation of fiat currencies and increases in M2 supply.
“One of the hardest things for traders to wrap their heads around is the fact that day to day [Bitcoin] does trade like a risk asset, but medium long-term, it trades like a safe haven,” said Macheel.
To put things in perspective, Bitcoin recently displayed a high level of volatility, along with traditional stocks, during the height of Trump’s tariff wars against China, Mexico, and Canada. On the other hand, it has never failed to rally to a new ATH at each halving cycle.
Bitcoin at Every Halving Cycle
At pre-halving, BTC peaked at $29.60. Then, it gained traction at the ensuing halving phases at $1,238 top in the first cycle, $28,993 top in the second, $68,991 top in the third, and $124,457.12 ATH so far in the current cycle.
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