- Bitcoin price is consolidating above $112,000 with technicals hinting at a breakout toward $170,000.
- Markets now price in near certainty of a Fed rate cut, which could fuel risk assets like Bitcoin.
- RSI sits neutral, MACD flattens, and the 50-day SMA provides a solid safety net for BTC’s bullish setup.
The Bitcoin price has risen 2.3% in the past week and 1.2% in the last 24 hours, trading at $112,353 as of 6:38 a.m. EST, with a 19% surge in trading volume to $43 billion. This happens as speculations of an interest rate cut mount. Can BTC rally to 51% in September?
Bitcoin Price Gains As Rate Cuts Odds Hit 97.6%
The odds of the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates this month have skyrocketed to a whopping 97.6%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. This could pump fresh energy into riskier assets like Bitcoin, making it easier for investors to borrow and spend.
Lower interest rates mean cheaper money all around, which leads to businesses expanding and stocks climbing. Crypto prices often ride that wave too.
Right now, with the U.S. economy showing signs of a slowdown (like more folks out of work than job openings available), the Fed’s likely to act fast. The unemployment data comes out today at 8:30 a.m. EST, and the market expects 4.3% or lower.
Leading market analysis platform, The Kobeissi Letter, is highlighting this shift, noting a “collapsing labor market” could force the Fed’s hand in just two weeks from now. If it comes in higher than this, the Fed could cut rates by as much as 50 bps.
Bitcoin Price Finds Support, Stages A Bounce
The 3-day TradingView snapshot of BTC/USD shows Bitcoin’s wild ride from mid-2024 onward. Starting around $60,000 in April 2025, the price dipped hard before clawing back with a steady uptrend, marked by that green support line.
Candlesticks tell the story: after a sharp drop in late 2024, BTC surged past $100,000 by early 2025, hitting a high of $123,731 recently. Now, it’s consolidating around $112,464, with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at $107,234 providing a safety net below.
Down at the bottom, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) sits neutral at 50.46—not overbought or oversold, suggesting room to run without immediate exhaustion.
The MACD, though negative at -1,333, is flattening out, hinting at fading bearish momentum. However, what’s really eye-catching are those purple Fibonacci extension levels in the pink zone. They project upside targets, with the -0.618 level pointing to about $170,000. From today’s close, that’s a 51% leap!
If BTC breaks above $123,000, analysts say it could ignite that surge, especially with rate cuts loosening the financial reins.
Final Thoughts
Crypto is volatile. But with ETF inflows picking up and sentiment turning bullish, this setup feels promising. Unemployment numbers drop in less than 2 hours from the time of publishing, so buckle up. If they’re weak, expect fireworks. For everyday investors, this could mean opportunity. Bitcoin’s eyeing big moves; will it deliver?
Disclaimer: The facts and analysis presented here are only for informational purposes. Readers should not interpret the content of this article as financial advice or product recommendations.
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