- Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley stated that models based on the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin have become obsolete as the market enters a new era of maturity.
Over the years, many crypto analysts have grounded their projections on Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle. Their assumptions primarily focus on the historical movements of the premier digital asset, driven by halvings.
What is Halving in Bitcoin?
As a recap, the halving is programmed into Bitcoin’s immutable code. The event occurs every four years, or precisely every 210,000 blocks mined. It reduces the rewards for cryptographic miners by 50% at every cycle until they have mined all of BTC’s 21 million supply.
Each halving phase usually triggers a new historical high for Bitcoin as the market prices in the asset’s new level of scarcity amid rising demand. Then, a prolonged bear market often follows each parabolic peak, as investors cash out their profits and BTC enters a long-term consolidation trend.
To illustrate this, here are the historical all-time highs (ATHs) of Bitcoin in the previous halving cycle:
- Pre-halving: $29.60
- 1st halving: $1,238
- 2nd halving: $28,993
- 3rd halving: $68,991
Bitcoin is currently in its fourth cycle. So far, its ATH is $126,198.07 per BTC, which it achieved on October 7 this year.
Bitwise CEO: Models Based on Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle are Obsolete
Hunter Horsley, the CEO of Bitwise, believes models relying on Bitcoin’s four-year model are “based on the bygone era of crypto.” In a statement echoing the earlier analysis by Ed Prinz, CEO of DLT Austria, he argued that the new market structure is no longer based solely on future price speculation, but rather on evolving market dynamics centered on the growing retail and institutional adoption of BTC.
The senior executive of the world’s largest crypto index fund manager explained that the market structure has significantly changed since the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024 and the arrival of a crypto-friendly administration in the US this year. These watershed moments catalyzed the arrival of new players, new market dynamics, and new factors influencing the trading and investing behavior of people and institutions.
Interestingly, Horsley claimed, “there’s a pretty good chance that we’ve been in a bear market for almost 6 months now and are almost through it.” Without elaborating on this, the crypto community took it as an indication that Bitcoin and other large-cap altcoins may have been moving at a tempered pace despite BTC logging a series of new ATHs along the way. In this case, BTC may still be undervalued and may very well be poised to rally further before the end of this quarter or early 2026.
Only time will tell whether Bitcoin continues its momentum. Nonetheless, Horsley pointed out, “The setup for crypto right now has never been stronger.”
Disclaimer: The facts presented in this article are only for informational purposes. They do not serve as financial advice or product recommendations from the author or the Blockzeit team.
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