TLDR
- XRP has dropped nearly 20% from its July 18 yearly high of $3.65
- Whales have offloaded over 640 million XRP tokens (worth approximately $340 million) since July 9
- The $2.65 support level is crucial for maintaining the bullish market structure
- Technical indicators show the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.65 aligns with quarterly VWAP
- Some leveraged traders have begun increasing long positions, suggesting they believe the bottom is in
XRP is facing mounting pressure as its price struggles to maintain the $3 level after dropping nearly 20% from its yearly high. The cryptocurrency, which peaked at $3.65 on July 18, has been unable to reclaim the $3.10-$3.00 resistance zone in recent weeks.
Market data reveals a complex picture for XRP investors. The altcoin briefly dipped to a key support range between $2.66 and $2.80 over the weekend before bouncing back on Sunday to form a higher low.
The current correction appears to be driven largely by whale activity. Large holders have been steadily reducing their positions over the past three weeks.
According to CryptoQuant data, whale wallets have offloaded approximately 640 million XRP tokens since July 9. This sell-off represents about $340 million in value, creating sustained distribution pressure that aligns with the recent price decline.
Santiment data confirms this trend, showing that wallets holding between 1 million and 1 billion XRP have reduced their holdings from over 10 billion to 8 billion tokens. This represents about $6 billion worth of XRP being sold by these large players.
The sell pressure may not be over yet. Technical analyst Ali Martinez has identified a bearish signal called the “MVRV death cross,” which has historically preceded significant price drops.
Critical Support Levels
The $2.65 level has emerged as a crucial support for XRP’s bullish market structure. This price point previously acted as significant resistance throughout the first half of 2025 before being broken in July.
After breaking above $2.65, this level flipped to become strong support, representing a technical shift in market structure. Maintaining this level is essential for preserving the uptrend narrative.
Technical analyst Dom notes that XRP has so far managed to hold $2.80, a key initial area of interest, and currently remains above $2.65. This level aligns with the quarterly Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), which traders often use to assess fair value.
Another analyst, Mind Trader, points out that XRP has completed a 50% Fibonacci retracement from its $3.65 high. Historically, if the 50% level holds, a renewed push could target $4.15, potentially setting a new all-time high.
#XRP has retraced 50% from its recent high. If the 50% Fibonacci retracement level holds, the target price could reach $4.15. pic.twitter.com/m3pt1rnSaF
— Mind Trader (@mindandtrading) August 3, 2025
However, if XRP breaks below $2.65, it risks falling back into its previous range and potentially retesting $2, essentially undoing months of gains and signaling broader weakness.
Trader Sentiment Shifting
Despite the bearish signals, some traders appear to be viewing the current dip as a buying opportunity. According to CoinGlass data, smart Binance traders have increased their long positions from 64% to 69% over the past two days.
This 5% surge followed a sharp reduction in long positions from 79% to 64% between mid-July and early August. This suggests that some large players believe XRP’s bottom may be in.
From an on-chain perspective, the $2.48 level represents another potential support, as data shows most current holders purchased the altcoin between $2.2 and $2.48. This level also aligns with the 200-day Simple Moving Average, suggesting XRP could fall by an additional 15% if market sentiment worsens.
The last time the MVRV death cross indicator was triggered in late March, XRP dropped over 30% from $2.4 to $2.0. If this pattern repeats, a more discounted buying window could open up for investors.
XRP’s price action continues to be influenced by broader market movements, particularly Bitcoin’s recent pullback. As of press time, XRP is trading at approximately $2.90, with traders closely watching the $2.80 and $2.65 support levels.
