- Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says Bitcoin price could “easily” reach $1 million, driven by institutional adoption and shift from legacy 4-year cycle.
- Lee argues that the historic BTC halving cycle is breaking down due to ETFs and institutional investors.
- As Bitcoin trades around $114,000, doubts rise about the once-hyped supercycle while Lee maintains bullish long-term expectations.
Financial analyst and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, Thomas Jong Lee, has made a bold prediction about Bitcoin’s future. Lee stated that the traditional four-year cycle for Bitcoin might be over, and he believes the crypto asset could “easily reach $1 million”. This statement has sparked a mix of excitement and skepticism among investors and market watchers.
Lee’s comments came during a discussion on the “Coin Stories” podcast, where he argued that Bitcoin should supplant gold as a store of value.
He suggested that institutional adoption is a key factor driving this potential shift. “Bitcoin should be over 1 million over time,” Lee said, emphasizing the role of institutional investors who are becoming “essentially permanent holders” of Bitcoin.
He also mentioned that the four-year cycle, often tied to Bitcoin’s halving events, might be ending due to these new dynamics.
BTC 4-year Cycle Is Dying As Institutions Take the Reigns
This prediction contrasts with the idea of a “Bitcoin supercycle,” a term used to describe prolonged periods of significant price increases. Some analysts have questioned whether the supercycle is dead, given recent market fluctuations and the challenges Bitcoin has faced.
However, Lee’s optimism banks on the belief that institutional interest will continue to grow, potentially pushing the price to super high levels.
The current market context adds complexity to Lee’s forecast. Bitcoin price is trading around $114,000, after bouncing from a recent low testing key support levels around $111,000.
Despite these fluctuations, Lee’s confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains unshaken. He pointed out that the increasing demand from institutions, combined with a perceived supply-demand imbalance, could drive the price much higher.
Will Bitcoin Break The 4-Year Reliable Cycle?
The four-year cycle has been a reliable pattern in Bitcoin’s history, and its potential end could mark a significant shift. Some argue that external factors like regulatory changes, macroeconomic conditions, and technological developments will play a crucial role in determining Bitcoin’s future.
Every cycle used to feel predictable: Buy altcoin, wait for the season, and exit in profit. According to the current market dynamics, it is clear that 2024’s BTC halving has been priced in. In 2012, BTC dropped 50% after halving, 25% in 2016, and 2024, only a 6.25% drawdown.
What’s more, the money flow back then happened as shown in the chart below. However, in this cycle, even though demand is way higher than expected, most of the money flows into Bitcoin ETFs only.
Additionally, the idea of Bitcoin reaching $1 million is ambitious to many people, given the current market cap and the challenges of achieving such growth.
Lee’s track record of predictions has been mixed, with some past forecasts missing the mark. This history adds a layer of uncertainty to his latest claim. Nevertheless, his influence in the financial community means his statements are closely watched and often debated.
As Bitcoin continues to navigate its current cycle, the debate over its future trajectory intensifies. Whether Lee’s prediction comes true or not, it highlights the evolving nature of Bitcoin’s role in the financial landscape.
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