TLDR:
- Altcoin market cap has jumped 50% since July, reaching $1.4T, while Bitcoin dominance dropped below 58%.
- Analysts suggest the real altseason could arrive in Q1 2026, with charts pointing to an extended cycle.
- Ethereum’s 2025 price moves may not match analyst expectations, echoing its pattern shifts from 2020–21.
- Coinbase and Pantera report conditions aligning for altcoins to outpace Bitcoin as early as September.
Crypto traders are debating the timing of the next altcoin season. Some expect a rally later this year, while others believe the market will not reach full strength until early 2026. Price charts and historical cycles are fueling both views.
In the middle, investors are weighing how much profit to book before another possible leg up. The question is whether Q4 2025 brings a peak or just a pause.
Altcoin Season Timelines Under Debate
Analyst Nilesh Rohilla compared 2020–21 with the current cycle, pointing to signs that a mega altseason may slip into Q1 2026. He noted that altcoin market cap could stall between $450 billion and $490 billion in Q4 2025, leaving traders short of expected returns.
He suggested partial profit-taking near that zone while holding positions for a larger breakout early next year.
Rohilla explained that major indicators, including charts and Nasdaq patterns, still align with a cycle extending into the first half of 2026. He added that recent job and inflation data point toward recession signals in 2026, which could follow a final pump fueled by rate cuts.
According to him, this liquidity wave would be the last stage before a downturn.
1/3: WHEN WILL BE #ALTS SEASON: 2020/21 VS 2025/26
THIS CHART GIVE YOU ALL ANSWER..
MAX PEOPLE THINK THAT ALT SEASON WILL BE IN Q4 2025.. But chart says that alts market only able to reach Nov2024 high in Q4..
MEGA #ALTSEASON WILL COME IN Q1/2026.It will be too early if we… pic.twitter.com/5r43NSLhzi
— Nilesh Rohilla (@nilesh_rohilla) August 19, 2025
Ethereum was also flagged as a case study. Rohilla highlighted that in 2020–21, when many expected an altseason in Q1, ETH dropped before surprising with strong gains in May and July.
He warned that September could play out differently than forecasts, possibly rallying instead of falling. The message: timing mistakes could lead investors to sell too early.
Coinbase and Pantera Signal Early Altcoin Rally
On the other side, reports from Coinbase suggest conditions are already aligning for a rally before the year closes.
According to a post shared by CryptosRus, Coinbase expects altcoins to gain traction by September, while Pantera Capital has described this stage as “Phase 2.” At this point, alts begin to outpace Bitcoin in relative growth.
Supporting that view, data shows the altcoin market cap has climbed 50% since July to $1.4 trillion. In the same stretch, Bitcoin dominance has slipped from 65% to under 58%, indicating more liquidity rotating into alternative assets.
Market watchers describe this as momentum building toward a breakout phase.
🚀 ALT SEASON LOADING: Coinbase sees conditions aligning for a full-scale altcoin rally by September, while Pantera calls this “Phase 2” – when alts start to outpace Bitcoin.
Alt market cap is already up 50% since July to $1.4T, while BTC dominance has slid from 65% to under… pic.twitter.com/uoaBTn9dvQ
— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) August 18, 2025
Still, both timelines come with risk. Traders who lock in only small gains may miss a larger cycle. Those who wait too long may face sharp pullbacks if the rally fades. Rohilla advised monitoring multiple bull market indicators and beginning exits with low caps first before moving up to larger tokens.
For now, the debate centers on whether Q4 2025 sets a peak or just another step in the road to a broader altseason in early 2026.
