- Hidden bullish divergence reappears on Bitcoin price MACD, echoing earlier setups that triggered major rallies this cycle, with RSI deep in oversold territory near 35.
- $15.4B in BTC and ETH options expire today, with Bitcoin’s $101K max pain level suggesting upward price pressure as calls dominate and open interest clusters around higher strikes.
- Global liquidity surges, including a stealth $125B Fed injection, as 90% of central banks cut or hold rates.
As Bitcoin price hovers around $91,500 amid choppy trading, technical indicators are flashing familiar bullish signals that propelled the crypto asset to new highs earlier this cycle.
With $15.4 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options set to expire today, market watchers are bracing for volatility—but the setup leans optimistic.
Hidden Bitcoin Price Bullish Divergence Echoes Past Rallies
The spotlight falls on a classic hidden bullish divergence spotted on the MACD chart for BTC/USDT price action. Bitcoin has carved a higher low around $85,000 in late November, signaling weakening downside momentum.
Yet the MACD histogram tells a different story. It’s etching a lower low, with the line dipping to -1.97 from prior troughs. This discrepancy (where price strengthens while the oscillator weakens) historically precedes trend continuations.
Zooming out to the three-year view, the candlestick chart reveals BTC’s resilient uptrend from $20,000 in 2023. Recent wicks tested $83,000 support before rebounding, with a green arrow marking the divergence’s potential breakout point.
The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $110,992 acts as dynamic resistance, while the 200-day at $88,328 provides a solid floor. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.78 screams oversold, flirting with the 30 threshold, often a springboard for 10-20% bounces.
The MACD line sits at -1.97, with the signal at -6.34 and histogram at – 4.37, negative but curling upward, hinting at convergence. If BTC clears $95,000 today, expect a slingshot toward $100,000; failure could retest $88,000.
The last two weekly divergences sent Bitcoin to the upside this cycle, and the exact same setup is forming now once again. This time might not be different.
Options Expiry — $13.7B BTC Contracts Eye $101K Max Pain
Adding fuel to the fire, today’s expiry of 147,000 BTC options ($13.7 billion) clusters heavily around a $101,000 max pain price. The put/call ratio of 0.58 underscores bullish bets, with calls outnumbering puts.
Open interest peaks at strikes from $90,000 to $105,000, per Deribit data, suggesting market makers may pin prices near max pain to minimize payouts.
Ethereum‘s $1.7 billion expiry fares similarly: a 0.48 put/call ratio and $3,400 max pain, above its current $3,020 perch.
The attached OI chart shows calls dominating lower strikes, with total notional value at $17.3 billion and a 0.49 put/call ratio. “Heavy clustering near max pain could draw BTC upward,” says Deribit. At $91,500 spot, this implies a 10% gravitational pull, aligning neatly with the divergence target.
Short-Term Holders in Limbo Amid Calmer Flows
Short-term holders (STHs) are treading water after November’s capitulation. CryptoQuant’s P&L-to-exchanges sum over 24 hours shows losses plunging to -11,600 BTC from 67,000 on November 22, a sharp drop signaling exhaustion. Profits ticked up modestly to 9,500 BTC as prices climbed, but volumes remain subdued.
“This small bullish recovery puts STHs in a difficult position: wait for breakeven or sell to limit losses,” reports CryptoQuant. Calm flows are “actually good,” buying time as BTC nears STH realized prices around $95,000. Watch for profit-taking spikes; sustained low outflows could confirm the uptrend.
Fed’s Stealth $125B Injection Fuels Risk Appetite
Behind the scenes, the Federal Reserve unleashed $125 billion in short-term liquidity from late October to early November, the largest since 2020’s trillions-scale frenzy. Month-end pressures peaked on October 31 with $29.4 billion in overnight repos, followed by a $22 billion Standing Repo Facility draw on November 3.
These “stealth” operations (banks swapping Treasuries for cash) eased funding strains without fanfare.
“This was low-profile plumbing to prevent a credit freeze,” says Bloomberg. Reserves dipped to $2.8 trillion, prompting the moves amid quantitative tightening.
Global Easing Wave: 90% of Banks Cut or Hold Rates
The Fed’s pivot mirrors a worldwide thaw. Over 90% of developed and emerging market central banks have cut rates or held steady in the last six months—the highest since 2020, per MacroBond. This streak has endured 12 months, unseen in 35 years. Globally, 316 cuts in two years eclipse the 313 during the 2008-2010 crisis.
According to this data, global monetary policy is easing. With the S&P 500 at record highs, this liquidity deluge bodes well for risk assets like Bitcoin, potentially amplifying today’s bullish cues. In sum, divergences, options dynamics, and easing tides paint a compelling case for BTC’s next leg up.
Disclaimer: The facts and analysis presented here are only for informational purposes. Readers should not interpret the content of this article as financial advice or product recommendations.
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