- Rate cuts could boost Bitcoin price after softer CPI and PPI data strengthen expectations of a 25–50 bps Fed rate cut.
- BTC ETFs saw $552M in inflows yesterday, their second-highest inflows in two weeks, signaling institutional confidence.
- Technical breakout signal strength as BTC broke a falling wedge pattern, with RSI at 64 and MACD positive.
Bitcoin price is up 1% in the last 24 hours to trade at $115,129 as of 4:04 a.m. EST on a 2% drop in trading volume to $49 billion. Despite the modest gains, analysts are eyeing a jump to $123,000, an 8% rise from its current level, as Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw strong inflows, signaling growing investor interest amid economic data that could lead to lower interest rates.
BTC ETF Records $552M, Second-Highest Inflows in 2 Weeks
On September 11, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $552.7 million in net inflows, the second-highest amount in the past two weeks, according to data shared by Crypto Crib on X. This surge indicates institutional confidence, and it could push BTC toward new highs.
The inflows follow a period of market volatility, but they suggest big players are betting on Bitcoin recovery.
Meanwhile, the latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, released yesterday, aligned with expectations. CPI year-over-year came in at 2.9%, matching projections, while core CPI month-over-month hit 0.9%, also on target.
Paired with recent Producer Price Index (PPI) declines and weaker job reports, this locks in a likely 25-50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this month. Lower rates typically boost risk assets like Bitcoin, making it cheaper to borrow and invest.
However, not everyone is convinced. Founder of Tolou Capital Management Spencer Hakimian pointed out that 40% of official CPI data has been “altered” since January 2025, up from 0%, raising questions about the reliability of inflation figures.
“We have no idea what actual inflation really is anymore,” Hakimian wrote, echoing skepticism about government numbers.
Adding caution, Axel Adler Jr. highlighted a skew in trading volumes where on-chain volumes are at $62 billion versus $41 billion on centralized exchanges (CEX) spot and futures. He noted a negative divergence between price growth and declining volume, indicating thin liquidity.
This could mean the market is vulnerable to sharp moves if negative news hits.
Top analyst Ted Pillows warned that Bitcoin’s price action mirrors past CPI releases, where BTC rallied before the data and dumped after.
“This time, BTC has rallied before today’s CPI data release, which means a dump could happen,” he posted on September 11. Yet, as of today, Bitcoin holds steady, defying immediate sell-off fears.
BTC Price Breaks Downtrend Structure, Targets Previous ATH
The 12-hour candlestick chart for BTCUSD shows price recovering from a low of $107,250 on September 1, and up 18% to its current $115,072. The chart depicts Bitcoin’s price breaking out from a falling wedge pattern, which is a reversal pattern that often resolves in the direction of opposite to the prior trend—in this case, potentially bullish given the broader downtrend from the August peak.
Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.48, which is above the neutral 50 level, indicating moderate bullish momentum but not yet overbought (typically above 70). The RSI line is trending slightly upward in the recent period, suggesting potential short-term strength despite the price decline.
Below it, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is positive, showing lingering bullish momentum from earlier in the period, but the histogram appears to be narrowing (based on the color gradient from red to orange to blue), which could signal weakening momentum or an impending bearish crossover if the trend continues.
A key event is the Break of Structure (BOS) labeled near the right side, where the price breaks above the trendline around $115,000-$116,000. The higher lows and still-positive RSI/MACD suggest underlying support.
If the bullish momentum persists, the price could target prior highs around $125,000-$130,000. However, if Adler’s thin liquidity observation pans out to be true, the current breakout could have low conviction and a potential for whipsaw (false breakout) rather than a strong trend.
Overall, while ETF inflows fuel bullish sentiment, concerns over data integrity and liquidity urge caution. Investors are watching the Fed’s next move closely. Bitcoin’s path to $123,000 depends on sustained buying and no major shocks.
Disclaimer: The facts and analysis presented here are only for informational purposes. Readers should not interpret the content of this article as financial advice or product recommendations.
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