Key points:
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Bitcoin is attempting a support retest that looks very similar to late 2024, trader Galaxy said.
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Last time, BTC price action went from $70,000 to $108,000 after a successful retest.
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Separate analysis does not see a return to recent swing lows.
Bitcoin (BTC) price action may open up a fresh 50% surge if a key support line holds.
New analysis from trader Galaxy published on X Thursday sees BTC/USD repeating its late 2024 breakout.
Bitcoin in “interesting spot” during support retest
Bitcoin price comparisons keep coming as market participants see similarities between the current market structure and earlier phases of the bull run.
For Galaxy, emphasis is now on the moves that led to BTC/USD breaking old all-time highs of $73,800 in November 2024.
Then, as now, the pair worked on retesting a resistance trendline as support after initially breaking through it. When it succeeded, price discovery began.
“$BTC in an interesting spot,” Galaxy told X followers.
“Last time it looked like this it was before the run from $70k to $100k.”
The situation in August 2025 is not identical. The trendline is now ascending, not descending, while external factors such as macroeconomic headwinds in the form of US trade tariffs continue to sway risk-asset appetites.
As Cointelegraph reported, the consensus is that BTC price will ultimately choose a direction after weeks of reduced volatility.
No new BTC price lows?
When it comes to historical price comparisons, there could be more good news for bulls.
Related: Bitcoin supply shock to ‘uncork’ BTC price as OTC desks run dry
Analysis has already dismissed the idea that Bitcoin could end up copying its behavior from the start of the year, when all-time highs sparked a 30% price rout.
Instead, that $109,300 peak, which came in January, is on the radar as ultimate support.
In another observation this month, Galaxy saw a pattern playing out involving swing lows, the latest of which came on Friday, when BTC/USD briefly fell below $112,000.
When swing lows appeared in April and June, both occasions formed a bottom that was not revisited.
I’m seeing a pattern here.$BTC pic.twitter.com/NFg5yElddl
— Galaxy (@galaxyBTC) August 1, 2025
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
