- Crypto analyst Jelle warns the current Bitcoin cycle could top out in October, 1,064 days after the 2022 bottom.
- Bitcoin surged from $16K to over $115K, fueled by institutional demand and $18B in spot ETF inflows.
- Large investors continue to buy the dip—$171M worth of BTC bought in 24 hours.
Bitcoin price has dropped 4.9% in a week and 1.4% in the last 24 hours to trade at $111,531 on a 7% increase in trading volume to $51 billion. From a low of $16,000 in late 2022, it climbed to over $115,000 in early September. Now, some experts say the party’s almost over.
Top Analyst Warns Only 30 days Left to Peak
Crypto analyst Jelle has predicted that the Bitcoin super cycle is coming to an end, with only 30 days left.
His math is simple. He looked at past cycles. Each peaked exactly 1,064 days after the bottom. From November 2022’s low, that points to an October top. With today being September 25, that’s roughly a month away. If right, Bitcoin could jump 20% more from here before dropping.
Bitcoin’s price moves in cycles. Every four years, a “halving” cuts the reward for mining new coins in half. This makes Bitcoin scarcer and often sparks bull runs.
The latest halving hit in April 2024. It kicked off this uptrend. But is this just another cycle, or something bigger—a “supercycle” that keeps going without a crash?
A supercycle means steady growth, thanks to big players like banks and companies jumping in. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, okayed by U.S. regulators in January 2024, pulled in $18 billion by mid-year.
That’s real money from everyday investors and funds. It has some folks betting on prices staying high for years.
Not Everyone Agrees
On August 19, Bernstein analysts said the bull run won’t end until 2027. They point to friendly U.S. policies under the new pro-crypto government. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants clear rules for digital money. That could draw more cash in.
The Federal Reserve helped too. It just cut rates for the first time in 2025. But that shook markets. Bitcoin fell 6.5% from its August high, hitting $108,000 support. Thin trading and wiped-out bets added to the wobble.
Still, 2025 September was Bitcoin’s best September in 13 years, up 4.3%. That’s behind gold’s 5.2% and the Nasdaq’s 6.1%, but solid. This is a historic signal that a massive BTC bull run awaits the market by year-end.
Bitcoin Whales Are Not Scared
Onchain data reveals whales have been scooping up more BTC as one large investor have snapped up 1,524 BTC (~$171 million) in the last 24 hours.
Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy is also all in. His firm turned $2 billion in debt into Bitcoin in Q3 as he saw gains for a decade.
However, retail folks are holding back, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gauge is trending below its moving average (yellow). Altcoins, like Ethereum, are down 13% on the weekly and 5% down on the daily.
The Pi Cycle Top signal is neutral now, after false alarms in July. Bitcoin’s market is huge at $2.2 trillion. That’s tamed some wild swings from smaller days and the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet keeps money flowing, softening any dips.
Final Thoughts
While Jelle thinks the market cycle is coming to an end, macro economist Alex Krüger says the peak is months off, thanks to halving scarcity. Nevertheless, traders are on edge amid BTC price swings. Is this the end of the supercycle? Or just a breather? One thing’s clear: Bitcoin’s story is far from over.
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