- Bitcoin price trades near $87K–$88K within a falling wedge, a pattern often preceding bullish breakouts.
- Polymarket odds show an 86% probability the Fed holds rates steady, signaling caution despite cooling core inflation.
- Delayed U.S. tariffs on Chinese chips and the appointment of a crypto-friendly CFTC chair improve policy clarity.
The financial markets are showing mixed signals as 2025 draws to a close, with key developments in monetary policy, crypto trading, asset management, trade policy, and regulation.
Fed Likely to Pause Rate Cuts in January
Betting markets on Polymarket indicate a strong shift toward the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its meeting in late January 2026.
Odds of no change have climbed to around 86%, up from lower levels earlier, with only about 13% chance of a 25-basis-point cut and minimal probability for larger moves.
This comes even as core inflation has cooled to its lowest since early 2021. Traders appear to be pricing in a cautious Fed approach, possibly due to resilient economic data and lingering inflation concerns.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s influence continues to weigh on expectations, with markets betting on a pause rather than aggressive easing.
Bitcoin Price Consolidates but Eyes Higher Targets
Bitcoin price is trading around $87,000–$88,000 on major exchanges like Binance, down slightly in recent sessions but holding firm after earlier volatility. The daily chart shows a classic falling wedge pattern during this bull market correction, which has seen prices drop about 37% from prior highs.
The consolidation phase, marked by lower highs and lower lows within converging trendlines, often signals building pressure for a breakout. A clear move above the recent range resistance could resume the uptrend, with analysts targeting $140,000 in 2026 as the next major level.
Bottoming processes typically take 2–3 months, and current price action fits that timeline, supported by long-term bullish channels sloping upward.
BlackRock Maintains Edge in ETF Dominance
BlackRock continues to lead the U.S. ETF market, holding roughly 30% share compared to Vanguard’s 29%, based on assets under management trends.
Both giants saw slight gains in market position this year, while competitors lag far behind. Historical charts of assets under management show BlackRock and Vanguard pulling away over the past two decades, with BlackRock’s line steady at the top amid industry consolidation.
This dominance reflects strong investor preference for low-cost, broad-market products from these firms.
U.S. Delays Tariffs on Chinese Chips
The U.S. Trade Representative announced plans to impose new tariffs on Chinese semiconductors, but implementation is delayed until June 2027. Current duties remain at 0% for now, giving an 18-month window amid ongoing trade talks. The move targets older “legacy” chips and follows findings of unfair practices by China in the sector. This balanced approach aims to protect U.S. interests without immediate escalation.
Meanwhile, Michael S. Selig was sworn in as the 16th Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. With prior roles as chief counsel of the SEC’s Crypto Task Force and advisor to SEC leadership, Selig brings deep experience in digital assets.
His focus on regulatory clarity over enforcement is seen as positive for crypto, promising a more predictable framework that could encourage innovation and market growth.
Overall, these updates point to a cautious but optimistic tone across markets heading into 2026, with stability in policy and potential upside in risk assets like Bitcoin.
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