- Bitcoin price dropped 4.2% this month, ending October below $110,000 — a sharp contrast to the 28% average October gain seen since 2013.
- BTC price is testing key support between $100,000 and $110,000, with RSI neutral and MACD signaling weakening bullish momentum.
- Despite the slump, historical data shows November averages 37% gains, keeping bulls optimistic for a rebound toward $125,000.
Bitcoin price has dropped 4.2% in the month and 0.9% in the last 24 hours to trade at $109,888 as of 6:04 a.m. EST.
The monthly price drop has fizzled out Bitcoin’s infamous “Uptober” rally like a dud firecracker this year, leaving investors nursing losses as the king of crypto dipped almost 4.5% over the past month.
October was supposed to be a seasonal surge as the month has historically delivered average gains of 28% for BTC since 2013. However, the month turned into a sobering slide. On Thursday, BTC closed at $102,851 on the weekly chart, down from a mid-month peak near $109,889. Traders and investors are now asking: Was Uptober just hype? And more importantly, where does Bitcoin go from here?
Bitcoin Price Analysis — BTC Eyes 24% As Uptober Ends
The weekly BTC/USDT chart shows a sharp red candle dominates the latest bar, erasing $4,614 in value and pushing BTC to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $102,851.
That’s a psychological blow. Nevertheless, the price remains above the 50-SMA, which now provides a reliable floor during the current bull run. The 200-day SMA sits much lower at $54,758, a distant support level that harks back to 2022’s bear market lows.
If panic sets in, that could be the next backstop, but we’re far from capitulation territory.
Support lines drawn on the chart highlight the vulnerability. An ascending channel from the November 2024 lows connects recent peaks and troughs, capping upside attempts and prevents bearish breakdowns, which provides a bullish underbelly.
BTC is currently testing the lower boundary of the channel near $100,000 – $110,000 range. Break below that, and $95,000 enters the crosshairs, a 12% drop that could trigger stop-loss cascades.
Technical oscillators add nuance but no comfort. The RSI at 50.57 sits squarely in neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, suggesting the pullback has room to deepen without extreme fear.
It’s a far cry from September’s overbought readings above 70 that foreshadowed the correction. Down below, the MACD histogram shows shrinking green bars, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line at 1,373, a classic bearish divergence.
The values (MACD at 3,577, and Signal at 4,950) point to waning bullish energy, though the gap isn’t yawning yet.
What’s Next for Bitcoin Price?
Short-term bears have the edge, with macro headwinds like sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts weighing on risk assets. Yet, history favors bulls in Q4; November has averaged 37% gains. If BTC holds $100,000 – $110,000, a rebound to $125,000 could test the upper channel. Watch the volume. If it surges on green candles, dip-buyers might pile in. For now, Uptober’s lie stings, but Bitcoin’s story is far from over.
Disclaimer: The facts and analysis presented here are only for informational purposes. Readers should not interpret the content of this article as financial advice or product recommendations.
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